Published in Scientific Papers. Series E. Land Reclamation, Earth Observation & Surveying, Environmental Engineering, Vol. XIV
Written by Traian Ciprian STROE, Oana MIHAI-FLOREA, Liliana MIRON
Climate change in recent decades has had a significant impact on Romanian agriculture. In this context, Tulcea County, located in the south-eastern part of the country, has experienced a trend of increasing average annual temperatures, an increase in the number of days with temperatures above 30°C and a decrease in total annual precipitation. The study analyzed meteorological data, the evolution of crop structure, cultivated area, and yield trends over a 20-year period (1994-2023). The results showed an increase in average annual temperature from 12.39°C in 1994 to 13.8°C in 2023. Precipitation was low and showed significant variability, ranging from 215.8 mm in 2022 to 732 mm in 1997, with uneven distribution during the crop growing season. The area planted with cereals for grain varied considerably, influenced by both the predicted climatic conditions and the extent of irrigated land. Statistical analysis was performed using the Python software package, applying Pearson correlation tests to examine the relationship between climatic variables and agricultural yields. Linear regression methods were also used to identify long-term trends. The statistical tests showed that both increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation were correlated with declining maize and wheat yields, highlighting the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. Maize production ranged from a minimum of 323 kg/ha in 2003 to a maximum of 8,820 kg/ha in 2018. The overall trend indicates a slight decrease in average production (R2 = 0.41, p < 0.05), correlated with increasing temperatures. Wheat showed a more stable yield, reaching a maximum of 4,738 kg/ha in 2021. The production trend was positive in periods with moderate rainfall (R2 = 0.63, p < 0.01).
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